Winners and Losers in Palestine

Posted in Palestine on July 2nd, 2007

Winners and Losers in Palestine - by Immanuel Wallerstein - 07/01/07

It’s easy to see who are the losers. It’s harder to see if there are any winners. During June, there was a dramatic confrontation between Fatah and Hamas in Gaza. The sequence was as follows. President Abbas dissolved the Hamas-led government (of which Fatah was a part). Prime Minister Ismael Haniya said this was illegal and refused to recognize the dissolution. Each side used force against the other. Hamas won hands down in Gaza. All Fatah leaders left Gaza for the West Bank where Abbas named a new government led by Salaam Fayyad, a government without Hamas members. De facto, Hamas now controls Gaza completely. Fatah controls the West Bank, albeit a little less surely than Hamas in Gaza. In the West Bank, not only does Hamas exist, if somewhat underground for the moment, but the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, nominally affiliated to Fatah, acts autonomously and neither is really under the control of Abbas nor agrees with his current politics.

Abbas is in a weak position. He has turned to the outside world - the United States, the European Union (EU), the “moderate” Arab governments (basically Egypt and Jordan), and Israel - for four things: love, money, arms, and substantial progress towards an independent Palestinian state. So far he has gotten lots of love, some but not all of the money Israel owes the Palestinian Authority, no arms (but they may be coming in limited supply), and nothing in terms of the so-called final settlement with Israel.

Abbas needs to establish his authority in the West Bank. Tony Blair’s new job is to help him do this (and that is Tony Blair’s only job). Given the very small likelihood of serious final settlement negotiations, Abbas will have a hard time doing so. And he has a major dilemma on his hands - what to do about Gaza. If he ignores Gaza entirely, and doesn’t arrange for any food or humanitarian aid for Gaza, he will be in effect renouncing the unity of the potential Palestinian state. If he does give assistance, he may be hurting his chances to get further money (not to speak of arms) from his outside supporters, and particularly from Israel. I count Abbas and Fatah as a major loser.

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